Abstract

Climate change is driving rapid shifts in human behavior, which has spurred violent conflict over resources. Environmental degradation prompts conservation laws, which attempt to preserve resources. How do conservation efforts impact climate-conflict dynamics? We develop a theoretical model built on the insight that land-use restrictions intended to conserve resources can discourage productive effort, creating an incentive use coercion to capture resources. We find evidence for the model's observational implications in Nigeria, exploiting the staggered adoption of laws that restrict open cattle grazing using a difference-in-differences design. We show farmer-herder conflicts become more fatal after such laws are passed. The effect is moderated by favorable rainfall, but exacerbated by negative shocks. Survey data suggests ethnic and religious tensions increased after law passage. Our results illustrate the negative unintended consequences of conservation laws, while highlighting how institutions and climate shocks interact to produce political violence.

Recommended Citation

Grasse, Don and Melissa Pavlik. 2025. "Climate change, Conservation, and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria." Working Paper.

Notes

Presented at Midwestern Political Science Association (MPSA), 2023; Boston-Area Working Group on African Political Economy (BWGAPE), 2023; and Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC), 2024.