Words of Warcraft: Experimental Evidence on Norm Subversion Following Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

What are the effects of state norm invocation and subversion on the opinions of foreign audiences? During geopolitical crises, states often use and adapt normative principles underlying the Liberal International Order (LIO) to mitigate backlash and justify their positions. This framing tactic is not just aimed at other states, but at key domestic populations in third party states, especially with the advent of social media. We assess the effectiveness of norm invocation and subversion by rival geopolitical powers in the context of the ongoing War in Ukraine, and in particular how norm usage affects populations differently depending on whether or not they are liberal. Using a novel survey experiment design with interactive mock social media posts, we show how rival states' framing of the Ukraine crisis with normative principles affects political beliefs in Hungary, Germany, and the U.S. We find that that norm usage shifts public opinion more than either unrelated sports posts or posts justifying actions of self-interest. However, regardless of the actor invoking the norm, these posts shift respondents views against Russian stances in the war, and towards greater approval of the LIO. Meanwhile, heterogeneity analysis reveals that differences in reactions between liberals and illiberals are driving the vast majority of the average treatment effects we observe. Whereas illiberals tend to demonstrate few subgroup effects depending on treatment type, liberals are much more likely to reject subversion by increasing support for key tenants of the LIO and support for policy interventions that favor Ukraine. These findings provide support for our argument that, in a similar fashion to domestic democratic backsliding, international transgressions are largely objected to by liberals, while illiberals are indifferent.

Recommended Citation

Pavlik, Melissa and Ryan Pike. 2025. "Words of Warcraft: Experimental Evidence on Norm Subversion Following Russia's Invasion of Ukraine." Working Paper.

Notes

Presented at Midwestern Political Science Association (MPSA), 2023; American Political Science Association (APSA), 2024; and European Political Science Association (EPSA), 2024 and 2025. This work was supported by the Nuclear Security Program at Yale University's MacMillian Center for International and Area Studies (2024), and the Multidisciplinary Experimental Research Grant from Yale University's Institute for Social and Policy Studies (2024). Draft available upon request.